East Ventura News

California Lutheran University economists Matthew Fienup, Ph.D., and Dan Hamilton, Ph.D., have been awarded the 2024 Crystal Ball Award for their precise forecast of home prices in the United States as part of the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey. This recognition marks the fourth time in six years that Fienup and Hamilton have received this prestigious national award.

The Center for Economic Research and Forecasting (CERF) at Cal Lutheran has participated in the survey since its inception in 2010 by Yale's Robert Shiller. Fienup, CERF's executive director, explained, “Our goal is to provide objective, clear-eyed forecasts that reflect what economic theory and state-of-the-art forecasting tools reveal. We see our role as calling ‘balls and strikes,’ rather than advocating for a preferred outcome.”

In the latest survey, CERF's forecasts stood out for their accuracy. The two-year-ahead forecast was the most accurate, the three-year forecast ranked third, and the one-year forecast was fifth. Other renowned forecasters like Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics and Carlos Garriga of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis were also top finishers.

According to Hamilton, "The survey leverages a large community of professional forecasters to provide forward guidance on home prices, which in turn, impact household spending, household and investor psychology and financial markets."

Pulsenomics conducts this survey quarterly, gathering insights from a panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts on the five-year outlook for U.S. home prices.

Fienup emphasized the significance of their achievement, stating, “Our fourth Crystal Ball award demonstrates CERF’s outstanding track record of accuracy. We are especially proud of this award given the history of the survey and the distinguished list of survey contributors.”

The Center for Economic Research and Forecasting at California Lutheran University is nationally recognized. Its economists contribute to major economic forecasting surveys and have a strong track record of delivering accurate economic forecasts. The university itself, founded in 1959 and recognized as a Hispanic-Serving Institution, is known for its commitment to diverse educational initiatives.